M&A Analogue Dashboard
Pending deal selection, analogue ranking, comparison summaries, and relevant sources.
NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP / UNION PACIFIC CORP
Cash and Stock · Industrial · Announcement: 2025-07-29
Expected completion: 2027-06-30
Announced deal value (mil): 88402.21
Nature of bid: Friendly
Percent sought: 100
Sources / News
Union Pacific deal with Norfolk Southern could happen soon
theindependent.com · 2025-07-29 · news
Two big reasons why Norfolk Southern stock closed lower despite Union Pacific deal
invezz.com · 2025-07-29 · news
What Norfolk Southern , Union Pacific merger would mean | Business
timesnews.net · 2025-07-30 · news
Interpretation
The pending deal's announcement reaction looks materially weaker than the analogue median (-3.0% vs 6.9%).
By day 5, the pending deal still looks weaker than analogue history (-2.3% vs 5.3%).
At the current comparison horizon, the spread is materially wider than the analogue median (25.43 vs 4.11).
Analogue coverage includes 2 same-sector analogues and 32 fallback analogues, so the strongest comparisons should generally come from the same-sector names first.
Pending announcement jump
-0.0304
Analogue median announcement jump
0.0695
Pending latest spread
25.4300
Analogue median latest spread
4.1109
Top analogues
| Rank | Target | Tier | Date | Score | Reasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN | 1 | 2021-09-15 | 1053.75 | same payment type (Cash and Stock), same target sector (Industrial), similar percent sought |
| 2 | FLIR SYSTEMS INC | 1 | 2021-01-04 | 1047.28 | same payment type (Cash and Stock), same target sector (Industrial), similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly) |
| 3 | CELGENE CORP | 2 | 2019-01-03 | 99.65 | same payment type (Cash and Stock), fallback out-of-sector analogue, very similar deal size, similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly) |
| 4 | ALLERGAN UNLTD CO | 2 | 2019-06-25 | 96.44 | same payment type (Cash and Stock), fallback out-of-sector analogue, very similar deal size, similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly) |
| 5 | TIME WARNER INC | 2 | 2016-10-22 | 87.49 | same payment type (Cash and Stock), fallback out-of-sector analogue, very similar deal size, similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly) |
| 6 | EVERNORTH HEALTH INC | 2 | 2018-03-08 | 85.69 | same payment type (Cash and Stock), fallback out-of-sector analogue, similar deal size, similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly) |
| 7 | AETNA INC | 2 | 2017-12-03 | 85.52 | same payment type (Cash and Stock), fallback out-of-sector analogue, similar deal size, similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly) |
| 8 | DIRECTV | 2 | 2014-05-18 | 84.60 | same payment type (Cash and Stock), fallback out-of-sector analogue, similar deal size, similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly) |
| 9 | ALLERGAN INC/UNITED STATES | 2 | 2014-11-17 | 83.55 | same payment type (Cash and Stock), fallback out-of-sector analogue, similar deal size, similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly) |
| 10 | COVIDIEN LTD | 2 | 2014-06-15 | 72.47 | same payment type (Cash and Stock), fallback out-of-sector analogue, similar deal size, similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly) |