M&A Analogue Dashboard

Pending deal selection, analogue ranking, comparison summaries, and relevant sources.

NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP / UNION PACIFIC CORP

Cash and Stock · Industrial · Announcement: 2025-07-29
Expected completion: 2027-06-30
Announced deal value (mil): 88402.21
Nature of bid: Friendly
Percent sought: 100

Sources / News

Union Pacific deal with Norfolk Southern could happen soon
theindependent.com · 2025-07-29 · news
Two big reasons why Norfolk Southern stock closed lower despite Union Pacific deal
invezz.com · 2025-07-29 · news
What Norfolk Southern , Union Pacific merger would mean | Business
timesnews.net · 2025-07-30 · news

Interpretation

The pending deal's announcement reaction looks materially weaker than the analogue median (-3.0% vs 6.9%).
By day 5, the pending deal still looks weaker than analogue history (-2.3% vs 5.3%).
At the current comparison horizon, the spread is materially wider than the analogue median (25.43 vs 4.11).
Analogue coverage includes 2 same-sector analogues and 32 fallback analogues, so the strongest comparisons should generally come from the same-sector names first.
Pending announcement jump
-0.0304
Analogue median announcement jump
0.0695
Pending latest spread
25.4300
Analogue median latest spread
4.1109

Top analogues

RankTargetTierDateScoreReasons
1KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN12021-09-151053.75same payment type (Cash and Stock), same target sector (Industrial), similar percent sought
2FLIR SYSTEMS INC12021-01-041047.28same payment type (Cash and Stock), same target sector (Industrial), similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly)
3CELGENE CORP22019-01-0399.65same payment type (Cash and Stock), fallback out-of-sector analogue, very similar deal size, similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly)
4ALLERGAN UNLTD CO22019-06-2596.44same payment type (Cash and Stock), fallback out-of-sector analogue, very similar deal size, similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly)
5TIME WARNER INC22016-10-2287.49same payment type (Cash and Stock), fallback out-of-sector analogue, very similar deal size, similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly)
6EVERNORTH HEALTH INC22018-03-0885.69same payment type (Cash and Stock), fallback out-of-sector analogue, similar deal size, similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly)
7AETNA INC22017-12-0385.52same payment type (Cash and Stock), fallback out-of-sector analogue, similar deal size, similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly)
8DIRECTV22014-05-1884.60same payment type (Cash and Stock), fallback out-of-sector analogue, similar deal size, similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly)
9ALLERGAN INC/UNITED STATES22014-11-1783.55same payment type (Cash and Stock), fallback out-of-sector analogue, similar deal size, similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly)
10COVIDIEN LTD22014-06-1572.47same payment type (Cash and Stock), fallback out-of-sector analogue, similar deal size, similar percent sought, same bid nature (Friendly)

Target return path

Spread path

Volume ratio path